HALFWAY TO 2030: HOW is the UK PERFORMING on IMPLEMENTING THE GLOBAL GOALS?

Early findings from the UN Global Compact Network UK’s Measuring Up 2.0 report suggest that the UK is only performing well on 21% of the Targets that are relevant to the domestic delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals in the UK. In the past four years there has been no change in the performance against 64 Targets and the UK has regressed in at least 14 areas. Regrettably one of these is Target 4.7;   widely recognised as a hugely important “means of implementation”(MOI) of all the SDGs.

The UK government via the Department for Education launched its sustainability and climate change strategy in April 2022. Although it has been welcomed as evidence that the government has acted towards meeting Target 4.7, it has been widely criticised for its limitations in coverage, lacking an implementation plan and to commit to integrating sustainability and climate change content across the curricula. Hence this misses a critical opportunity to put the climate emergency and ecological crisis at the heart of the education system for all students. 

As lead author for SDG4 I would like to thank my colleagues who so skilfully supported drafting the chapter over the past few months-namely Professor William Scott, Suzanna Jones, Charlotte Jackson, and Sam Redding. I would also like to thank Jessica Lobo-from Global Compact- for her unstinting and positive encouragement throughout the drafting process.

In 2015, the UK Government joined every other country in the world and committed to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Goals provide a holistic framework to eradicate poverty, reduce inequalities, combat catastrophic climate change, and protect our natural environment by 2030. Yet with just seven years to go, and already halfway through the 2030Agenda, the UK is far from achieving the Goals.

This year, the UN Global Compact Network UK is working with stakeholders to review how the UK is performing against the 17 SDGs and 169 Targets, the wider policy context, and the historical trends that affect us achieving the Goals. The preliminary findings indicate that 131 of the Targets are relevant to the domestic delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals in the UK. Of these Targets, the UN Global Compact Network UK found that the UK is only performing well on 21% of them. There are gaps in policy or inadequate performance for 59% of them, and 12% where there is little to no policy in place to address the Target and where performance is poor or even declining. Compared to an exercise in 2018, these results suggest improvements in 24 Targets, regression in 14 Targets, and no change in 64 of the Targets which were rated amber or red. The remaining 8% of Targets were considered to have gaps in available or appropriate data to measure the UK’s performance, and the time lag in data does not yet reveal the full extent to which Covid-19 has impacted progress on the agenda.

The 17 Goals provide us with an internationally agreed framework, which also works at national, regional, and local levels, alongside and reinforcing existing plans and commitments. They enable Government to work cross-departmentally and with stakeholders to create programmes and policies that are aligned with the needs of our economy, society, and environment both domestically and internationally.

The full Measuring Up 2.0 publication will be launched in September and will identify how and where the Government, and other organisations, should focus efforts for the remainder of this

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS -ALL TALK NO ACTION

In September 2015, leaders from 193 countries gathered in the UN assembly hall in New York to plan nothing less than “transforming our world”. This was the birth of the sustainable development goals, which aimed to “free the human race from the tyranny of poverty and want and to heal and secure our planet”.

There are 17 sustainable development goals, or SDGs, encompassing 169 more detailed targets and over 200 measures of progress.

To give just a few examples of the 169 targets under these overarching goals, governments agreed, by 2030, to halve the proportion of people in poverty, end hunger, ensure all children complete a quality education for free, raise the income of the poorest 40% of each country’s population at a rate above the national average, and significantly increase funding to conserve and sustainably use biodiversity and ecosystems. The list goes on.

Sustainable development goals are found wherever UN bureaucrats and international diplomats meet. You’ll see the 17 flags of the SDGs in the lush gardens of the UN headquarters in New York. Posters listing the SDGs hang in government offices all around the world. Dozens of international meetings are held to discuss them each year. The UN even announced an international decade of action for achieving the goals.

In this article for Conversation the Dutch author raises this question: ” And yet, it is fair to ask: do these global goals actually change anything? Do they tangibly influence the actions of governments, business leaders, mayors, UN bureaucrats and university presidents?” For the last few years, a growing community of social scientists has considered this question.

With 61 colleagues from around the world, they analysed more than 3,000 academic studies that scrutinised aspects of the SDGs. Their findings are published in the journal Nature Sustainability, and a more detailed assessment will soon be published as a book. Because they believe it is important to share what they found with everyone, both publications will be free to download and read.

Unfortunately, their findings are disheartening. The SDGs have infiltrated the things people say, think and write about global sustainability challenges. Governments mention the SDGs in their national reports to the UN, and some have set up coordinating units to implement them. Multinational corporations like to refer to the SDGs as well – especially those goals that are least disruptive to their commercial activities, like SDG 8 which calls on governments to “sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances”. And unsurprisingly, UN organisations are all formally supportive of the SDGs.

https://theconversation.com/un-sustainable-development-goals-failing-to-have-meaningful-impact-our-research-warns-185269

#sustainabledevelopment #education #biodiversity #change

Amping up Community Energy in the Derbyshire Dales

There is a growing appetite for the development of community energy programmes across the UK- Currently over 400 proactive programmes exist in the UK according to Community Energy England( CEE State of the Sector Report : https://communityenergyengland.org ) which  have generated over £3 Million of community benefits. In Derbyshire there are currently 5 Rural Community Energy Funded(RCEF) programmes. These include Derbyshire Dales Community Energy programme in Matlock and the Derbyshire Dales; Arkwright Society programme at Cromford Mill; Hope Valley Community Energy; Solar EV Car charging in Belper; Heat network programme in Brassington. There are at least 2 others being considered -a Hydro scheme in Darley Abbey and another similar scheme in Belper. Just like the pioneering Georgian engineers such as Arkwright and Smedley- who used the abundant rivers and streams to power the industrial revolution in the Derwent Valley- these renewable energy democracy pioneers are seeking ways to ramp up the application of solar energy in our schools and businesses.

New investment partner supercharges plans for Dales community energy scheme

Plans for a social renewable energy scheme in Matlock have been supercharged by a new partner organisation which has identified potential to harness up to 1million Watts of solar electricity from sites in the district

Derbyshire Dales Community Energy (DDCE) has enlisted the support of Shropshire cooperative Sharenergy to help guide the process, drawing on its experience of raising more than £20million through community share offers linked to similar initiatives all over the UK.

The first two Matlock rooftop sites, Highfields School and Twiggs on Bakewell Road, have already passed feasibility assessments with a view to delivering 220 kilowatts of capacity, equivalent to around 25 average households – but Sharenergy says there is scope to go far beyond that.

A DDCE spokesperson said: “Sharenergy have identified an ambitious opportunity for us to ensure the longevity and stability of the group. The plan is to take community energy in Derbyshire to the next level by attempting to install 1MW worth of solar photovoltaics.

The project partners plan to install the first two solar arrays on top of buildings in Matlock in 2023.

“This will not only be providing a great amount of renewable energy, but also will make DDCE more resilient to the potential risks associated with small scale solar PV.”

They added: “There are a few sites in the pipeline that could potentially work well, but nothing is set in stone.

“One of the main factors is that a good solar site doesn’t only need roof space for the PV installation. For a community project to be financially viable it’s important that a large portion of the energy generated by the solar is also consumed on site.”

If all goes according to plan, DDCE expects to release shares this autumn, funding the first two installations in early 2023.

DDCE volunteers have also been busy working to set up a community energy hub which could link all the existing, and potential new, projects around Derbyshire, so they can coordinate resources and mutual support.

The ultimate aim is to widen the uptake of community energy activities across the county to realise the net zero carbon targets of county and district councils, and act as a catalyst encouraging wider community action.

For more details, contact derbyshiredalescommunityenergy@gmail.com.

Replacing Sustainable Development: Potential Frameworks for International Cooperation in an Era of Increasing Crises and Disasters.

Jem Bendell

This preprint(full paper in the link below this abstract)written by Professor Jem Bendell outlines his thinking on the impact of the SDGs . It’s not comfortable reading but nor is what’s happening across the globe in terms of fires, floods and huge changes in weather events as well as the increasing evidence of polar melt -all of which say to me we are in an existential crisis.And, do those who are impacted have a voice in this crisis ?

Disasters. Preprints 2022, 2022050180 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202205.0180.v1). Bendell, J. Replacing Sustainable Development: Potential Frameworks for International Cooperation in an Era of Increasing Crises and Disasters. Preprints 2022, 2022050180 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202205.0180.v1).Copy

Abstract

This transdisciplinary review of research about international cooperation on social and environmental change builds the case for replacing Sustainable Development as the dominant framework for an era of increasing crises and disasters. The review is the output of an intentional exploration of recent studies in multiple subject areas, based on the authors’ decades of work in related fields since the Rio Earth Summit 30 years ago (rather than a keyword search of databases). It summarizes the research which documents failure to progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Consequently, the extensive scholarship critiquing the conceptual framework behind those ‘Global Goals’, and the economic ideology they arose from and support, is used to explain that failure. Although the pandemic set back the SDGs, it further revealed the inappropriate strategy behind those goals. This suggests the Global Goals constitute an ‘own-goal’ scored against people and nature. From this conclusion, alternative frameworks for organizing action on social and environmental issues become more important and are therefore briefly reviewed. It is argued that such a future framework must relate a new eco-social contract between citizen and state and engage existing organizations and capabilities that are relevant to an increasingly disrupted world. Therefore, the case is made for considering an upgraded form of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) as an overarching framework. The proposed upgrades include detaching from economic ideologies and recognizing that a wider Meta disaster from climate chaos may reduce the future availability of external support. Therefore, self-reliant resilience and locally led adaptation are identified as important to the future of DRM. Some options for professionals continuing to use the term sustainability, such as this journal, are discussed.

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202205.0180/v1

EARTH SUMMIT REFLECTIONS

This coming week is the 30th anniversary of the Rio Earth Summit (which launched the sustainable development paradigm) and the 50th anniversary of the Stockholm conference (which alerted world leaders to environmental dilemmas). Such anniversaries previously brought much fanfare from the UN. Not this year. The backsliding on poverty and the environment is so shocking and undermining of the efforts and ideologies of our elite institutions, that these milestones might not get much attention. As one of the 600+ signatories of the initial international scholars’ warning from November 2020, I am keen to highlight these milestones so that what we might learn from decades of political failure. #RioPlus30 #Stockholm50 #StockholmAt50 #StockholmPlus50 #sdgFailure.

It’s the Economy Stupid!

2018 and 2019 launched a wide range of dire warning about the fragility of our planetary systems, notably David Attenborough’s speech at COP 24 on climate change and another dire warning about the alarming loss of planetary biodiversity from the UN’s biodiversity chief, Christiana Pascal Palmer. All of which cries out for a global call for action to exert immense pressure on our governments to set ambitious global targets.

Yet our political systems seem incapable of responding at scale and urgency to this existential crisis.  Our government was one of the first to sign up to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs or Global Goals) in 2015. The 17 Global Goals and associated targets represent an unprecedented opportunity to tackle the root causes of climate change, biodiversity loss, eliminate extreme poverty and put the world on a more sustainable path. And yet three years after the goals were agreed, the UK government does not have a compelling and coherent plan on how the UK is going to achieve them. The government has made a commitment to report on the UK’s progress at the UN in New York in July 2019. This is closely followed by the UN SDG Heads of State Summit on the 24 and 25 September. The UN SDG Summit will be one of three high-level events taking place in September, along with the 2019 Climate Summit and the High-level Dialogue on Financing for Development. These events will be mutually reinforcing in identifying areas for action to accelerate the progress towards sustainable development.

Growth in all of its forms is one of the greatest conundrums facing humanity in the 21 century. It can improve our living standards and health and well-being. Yet as a recent global photographic competition (www.prixpictet.com) has depicted in graphic detail the dizzying growth of our cities and their dependency on scarce resources along with the relentless growth of the world’s population, all of which now threatens our very existence. We face a global environmental catastrophe in land use, food production and resource use which could undermine existing fragile economies and the sustainability of our civilisation.

And our politicians search relentlessly for solutions which will re-energise economic growth, with little evidence to date that their interventions are making any fundamental difference. So it’s not surprising that some of the worlds’ so – called sustainability experts have also found it impossible to reach any consensus on whether sustainable consumption and economic growth are compatible

But some recent analysis of the UK’s Material Flow Accounts for 2001-2009 suggest we are using less stuff now than the previous decade (Guardian 1/11/11- The Only way is Down http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/nov/01/peak-stuff-consumption-data ).

It seems that the grand total of stuff we use (minerals, fuel, wood etc) in the UK amounts to roughly 2 billion tonnes per year about 30 tonnes for each and every one of us. For our former London Mayor’s benefit that’s as heavy as 4 Route Master buses!

This data is potentially good news because it implies at least as I read it that we may have “decoupled “economic growth from material consumption. Genuine decoupling has been seen by many of us as unachievable. But is this really de-materialisation and hence the emergence of a Green Economy or as others have suggested is it the dawn of de-growth?

Whatever the answer our unsustainable lifestyles and commitment to perpetual economic growth are major political and social obstacles because they have become the major drivers of climate change on Earth. Jason Hickel recently suggested that the solution is “about changing the way our economy operates” (Guardian: 5 March-2020).

Climate breakdown: ‘It’s the economy, stupid!’ | Guest blog, Stephen Martin and Stephen Sterling

EU PLANS to ACCELERATE RENEWABLES

Europe’s plan to slash Russian fossil fuel imports and accelerate renewable energy production will test its ability to find the minerals, metals and other components that are needed for a dramatic shift to clean power. 

The plan, outlined by the European Commission, would speed the continent toward a historic transition to wind and solar energy, while diversifying its sources of natural gas and expanding energy efficiency.

But it could come at a high cost. The rapid switch to renewables will depend on Europe’s ability to mine or import the materials that are needed for clean energy technology, like copper, lithium, and cobalt. And it comes as supply chains strain against rising demand for renewable energy globally. 

“What we’re talking about doing is going from variable cost volatility on hydrocarbons to fixed-cost volatility on transition metals and minerals, going from the limitations on European domestic capacity to produce hydrocarbons to limitations on European domestic capacity to manufacture and deploy full value-chain renewables,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners LLC. 

“These are risk-shifting choices, and a lot of the details will matter,” he added. 

The plan builds on a package of legislation that would reduce Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions 55 percent by 2030 and reach net zero by mid-century. It aims to accelerate renewable energy to 45 percent of the E.U. energy mix by 2030, up from 40 percent now. That would bring total renewable energy generation to more than 1,200 gigawatts within eight years.

If the E.U. achieves its near-term targets, the European Commission estimates that it would cut two-thirds of its current gas imports by the end of this year, with a goal to end them completely well before the end of the decade. 

“Today, we are taking our ambition yet to another level to make sure that we become independent from Russian fossil fuels as quickly as possible,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Some experts say more details will be needed to determine whether those plans are achievable. Europe could face shortages of the materials needed for its clean energy transition, or risk forming new dependencies on unsustainable suppliers, according to a report commissioned by the metals industry group Eurometaux and written by the Belgium-based research university KU Leuven.

It found that the E.U. target of zeroing out emissions by 2050 would require around 35 percent more copper and aluminium than it consumes today, and around 45 percent more silicon — a key component in solar panels. At the same time, lithium demand could grow by 35 times, to more than 800,000 tons, and as much as 26 times more rare earth elements will be needed. Cobalt and nickel demand could rise by 330 percent and 100 percent, respectively. 

Those materials are needed to produce electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines and solar panels — all of which are key to meeting Europe’s ambitious emissions-cutting targets.

An international energy strategy, recently released , acknowledged those supply chain risks.

THE CLIMATE CRISIS-THE KIDS ARN’T ALRIGHT

Commentary from Dr Wim Thiery

Scientists predict about 2.4°C of global warming by the end of this century under current policy pledges, compared to preindustrial times. In our studies, we calculated the meaning of that level of warming, in terms of how many extreme climate events a real person in a real location will face across an entire lifetime. Compared to their grandparents, children born today will face 1.5 times more tropical cyclones, 2.6 times more droughts, 2.8 times as many river floods, nearly 3 times as many crop failures, 2 times the number of wildfires, and 7 times the number of extreme heatwaves under current pledges. These numbers illustrate unprecedented increases in lifetime extreme-event exposure for today’s young generations. Without doubt, the increased numbers of lifetime extreme climate events will significantly impact not only people’s lives but also whole societies and economies.

Will children across the world face the same impacts of climate change?

Very strong intergenerational inequities exist, in terms of exposure to climate extremes. The younger people are and the higher the warming level, the greater the number of extreme events they will experience. If 3.5°C of global warming occur, children across the world will face, on average, 44 times more extreme heatwaves compared to people living in a world without climate change. In the Middle East and North Africa, people under 25 will face at least a 7-fold increase in lifetime exposure to all categories of climate extremes which we considered, and new-borns will face a 9-fold or greater increase relative to those in a world without climate change.

In addition to this intergenerational injustice, we also see international injustice. Young people in low-income countries will face, by far, the strongest increase in lifetime extreme event exposures, followed by young children in lower-middle income countries. From 2015–2020, 64 million children were born in Europe and Central Asia, and those children will face a 4-fold increase in lifetime extreme event exposures. In the same period, 206 million children were born in sub-Saharan Africa and those children will face a 6-fold increase. So, not only does the average child in sub-Saharan Africa face a much stronger increase in exposure, but there are also many more children born into that situation. As African countries contribute only minimally to global-scale emissions, these children bear a disproportionate burden of the impact of global warming. Finally, these children are among the most vulnerable. Often, their survival depends on agriculture and their homes are not well protected against climate extremes like tropical cyclones or heatwaves.

There has also been a recent surge in climate litigation, in which people around the world are suing governments and fossil fuel companies for contributing to negative climate impacts or for expressing insufficient ambition in terms of mitigating these impacts. In many cases, these lawsuits are spearheaded by young people, who believe that current policies violate their rights under the UN’s Convention on the Rights of the Child. Together, youth protests and climate litigation are game changers. Young people have, and will continue to play, a key role in the actions taken to protect their own futures.

https://policylabs.frontiersin.org/content/wim-thiery-climate-crisis-kids-are-not-alright?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NL+04+2022&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fpolicylabs.frontiersin.org%2fcontent%2fwim-thiery-climate-crisis-kids-are-not-alright&utm_id=185

COHORT 2040 CHALLENGE

How Can Future Leaders be Better Prepared for a Future of Worsening Environmental Crisis (https://www.ippr.org/files/2022-01/cohort-2040-jan-22.pdf   )

This report from the Institute for Public Policy research(IPPR) is yet another wake up call for all of those who are asking where the leadership will come from to tackle a worsening environmental and social crisis created by humanities unsustainable lifestyles?

According to this timely report many scientists, experts and communities on the front line are warning of this worsening outlook. But these warnings are often treated as projections of a future that can be definitively avoided; and as interventions tactically deployed to spur action in the present. This is particularly the case when they are expressed in intergenerational terms: “Act now to save our children’s future.” But what if these warnings increasingly indicate the future conditions under which the struggle to overcome the environmental crisis will be fought?

Less attention has been paid to another intergenerational perspective: What burden is being placed on the shoulders of future decision-makers by a far more environmentally destabilised world – and how can they be better prepared? The average age of world leaders is 62, dropping to the early 50s across Europe (Asrar 2021); many parliaments have an average age in the high 50s (Watson 2020, CRS 2021). Emerging millennial-age leaders in their early 30s – the median age of the global population is 31 years (CIA 2021) – will reach the age range of contemporary leaders in the 2040s and 2050s. If the inadequate action of today continues, theirs could be a tomorrow of 2C of heating, severe and persistent environmental shocks, and the knock-on destabilisation of societies across the world.

Many of the defining features of this report’s systemic approach to issue of future leadership recognises the huge challenges future cohorts of students will face in a potentially destabilising world. Without building the capacity of future leaders and change agents to enhance their understand the necessity of fundamental change to societies and economic systems to create and unlock a global response that avoids non-linear environmental change and enables an ongoing process of restoring and restabilising the natural world -then growing destabilisation of societies will dominate their future. Focus must be maintained on making a better future as the present gets worse.  Hence those cadres of university graduates who aspire to become transformative leaders must be capable of embracing complexity and developing a sophisticated, systems analysis of the causes, evolution, and consequences of growing destabilisation in and between human and environmental systems to navigate the coming decades. Mechanisms are needed to identify, monitor, and better understand complex and rapid change across systems and to collaboratively respond to threats and opportunities.

 Expanding global solidarity (relational). Greater connection with communities on the front line of destabilisation is needed around the world, ensuring their experience is foregrounded as part of an explicit strategy of creating a greater shared group understanding of the impacts of destabilisation, minimising perceptions of people as being part of an ‘outside’ group. In turn, considerations of equity are paramount, as is maximising the resources and agency of those who are most vulnerable. The chances of an effective global response are limited under conditions of high inequality and, as a result, low cooperation.

 Caring collectively (emotional). The emotional and psychological implications of the worsening outlook are significant, unequal and will have a range of impacts on collective responses. These include elements in social psychology, such as heightening fear or empathy and their consequences for marshalling and maintaining an effective collective response under growing stress, as well as the emotional toll for individuals. Globally, it is essential that leaders can better support communities and entire populations in making sense of what is going on, how it came to this, and what must be done to navigate out, telling stories of focus and hope.

WORLD ENERGY TRANSITION UPDATE

Published today (29 March), IRENA’s  2022 edition of the World Energy Transitions Outlook outlines the priority actions that will need to be taken between now and 2030 to keep the goal of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5C within reach. 

COP26 President Alok Sharma stated earlier this month, in a journal for think-tank IPPR, that the goal to “keep 1.5C alive” was not guaranteed in the long-term by the Glasgow Climate Pact alone. He described the Pact as a “fragile win”. His article warned that “achievements will come to nothing” unless “promises made are promises kept”.

According to the report, keeping the world on a 1.5C pathway will require ensuring that renewables account for at least 40% of the global annual energy mix in 2030, up from 14% at present.

Electrification will also need to happen at scale to tackle energy consumption – the Outlook is predicated on the global electric vehicle (EV) stock being 20 times larger in 2030 than it was in 2021. Also detailed is the widespread uptake of electric technologies for domestic heating.

Additionally, the report highlights historic under-investment in energy efficiency. Global energy efficiency investment was $0.3trn in 2021 but will need to reach $1.5trn annually. This finding was to be expected; the International Energy Agency has stated that the rate of progress on energy efficiency will need to at least double from 2021 levels to deliver a net-zero world.

Rotterdam citizens concerned with air quality form a club

They will be measuring air quality as a citizen-driven science project

Over 400 citizens of Rotterdam have already registered in a special club dedicated to air quality and called Luchtclub. Part of the activities of the club is the measurement of air pollution on the street with particulate matter sensors. The club aligns with a five-decade-old policy of the Dutch port city to measure air quality and will function as a sort of a citizen science project.

Mapping the air quality in The Netherlands

The first members of the air club in Rotterdam have already received their air quality sensors and the rest will get them in the next couple of weeks. With these devices, members will be measuring the levels of particulate matter (PM2.5) on their streets and will be supplying data for a two-year period.

The municipality and the Institute for Public Health and the Environment will use this data as a basis to map out how Rotterdammers experience their environment and what they consider important. The measurements can already be seen live on an online map (fuelled with data from across The Netherlands).

According to the Alderman for Sustainability Arno Bonte, quoted on the city website, the measurements will be a valuable addition to the existing municipal network, which has been functioning for 50 years already and will help it further improve its air quality. Although 400 members is already a very good number, certain city areas are still not represented sufficiently, so new club members are more than welcome.

Other than measurements, the air club members in other city areas like Rozenburg, Pernis, Hoogvliet and Hoek van Holland can already participate in discussions, exchange ideas online on how to improve the air quality in their neighbourhoods. 

The first meetings started on 3 June and during the first online sessions, Alderman Bonte, assisted by other health and environmental authorities, will elaborate on the purpose of the Luchtclub, the importance of clean air and the added value of measuring it. They will also discuss sustainable urban development and how to make Rotterdam future-proof.

Finally, Rotterdam is taking various measures to improve air quality, such as installing shore-based power for sea vessels, promoting shared electric transport, and encouraging cycling, walking and public transport. The goal for Rotterdam is to meet the stricter standards of the World Health Organization by 2025 at the latest.